ARNOLD VS ANGELIDES: PJM Special Correspondent Bill Bradley interprets the California polls so you don't have to

A great deal of public polling data has just come out and it is very revealing. Prominent among the findings is a sizable lead for reviving and renewed centrist Republican Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger.

The governor has spent heavily to define and distance himself from his liberal Democratic challenger, Treasurer Phil Angelides, and it is beginning to show. The polls also tell us of an overwhelming lead for centrist Democratic Senator Dianne Feinstein over her hapless right-wing Republican challenger, former state Senator Dick Mountjoy. Big leads are visible as well for a few well-known Democrats running for other statewide offices, including former Governor Jerry Brown. There are, as well, hopeful signs for a pair of moderate Republicans linked to Schwarzenegger. Warning signs abound for the record infrastructure bonds package, but a few striking initiatives, including a crackdown on child molesters, a new tobacco tax to fund health care, and an oil extraction tax to fund alternative fuels research have strong leads at present.

Schwarzenegger has spent over $12 million since the June 6th primary to define Angelides as a big tax-and-spend liberal. The result is a lead of between 8 and 13 points. Angelides was left broke and bloodied from his narrow Democratic primary win over the moderate state Controller Steve Westly, a super-rich ex-eBay executive. Still, with help from the Democratic Party, he has been able to spend nearly $4 million on post-primary TV ads. His campaign said this week it will be able to come back against Schwarzenegger by defining him as a George W. Bush clone. They will also remind voters of Schwarzenegger’s unpopular special election agenda last year.

Schwarzenegger, who unaccountably junked his popular centrist stance of his 2003 recall campaign victory and first year in office, campaigned as a partisan Republican for an agenda that could have been presented from the center instead, and lost all four of his initiatives last November: They would have made it harder for teachers to get tenure, for unions to spend big money on politics, taken redistricting out of the hands of politicians and placed it in the hands of a panel of retired judges, and instituted automatic controls on state spending. In the end, the voters judged these to be very bad ideas.

Lesson learned, Schwarzenegger’s job approval rating is back up around 50% as he continues to distance his brand of politics from that of Bush. Recent examples:In the last 10 days he has jump-started the state’s stem cell research agency (previously stalled by a legal challenge from anti-abortionists) with $150 million in funds, and signed an anti-global warming pact with British Prime Minister Tony Blair.

At the same time, the bipartisan infrastructure bonds package Schwarzenegger worked out with Democratic legislative leaders has some problems. California is now in the post-Proposition 82 Reiner initiative environment, in which voters are more skeptical about seemingly good ideas that cost money.

While some pols took comfort in the knowledge that opposition to the bonds is not well organized and is unlikely to have major funding, the fact is that all the infrastructure bond initiatives lost ground from two months earlier. Some insiders note that not only did controversial movie director Rob Reiner’s tax-the-rich-for-universal-preschool initiative go down in a June primary election dominated by a Democratic gubernatorial primary contest, so too did a non-controversial bond measure for public libraries, which had no organized opposition.

The highly respected Field Poll has the following results on the various infrastructure bonds initiatives: Proposition 1B transportation bonds leads, 54% to 27%. Proposition 1C affordable housing bonds trails, 33% to 42%. Proposition 1D education construction bonds leads, 48% to 37%. Proposition 1D, levee repair and disaster preparedness bonds leads, 47% to 33%. All of those initiatives were placed on the ballot by the Legislature and Schwarzenegger. Proposition 84, water and parks bonds, placed on the ballot by environmental groups and endorsed by Schwarzenegger, leads 49% to 31%. Notably, only the transportation bonds measure has over 50% support. All the others are under 50%, normally a major warning sign with regard to their prospects.

It will take a serious campaign by Schwarzenegger and the Democrats who have worked with him on this package — which all told amounts to $42 billion in bonds — to get most of it passed. Some of it, notably the affordable housing bonds measure, may have to be jettisoned to allow passage of the rest.

Some other dishes on the big buffet of direct democracy have big leads.

The Jessica’s Law anti-child molester initiative, Proposition 83, has an enormous lead, 76% to 11%. Among other things, this will require that paroled sex offenders wear GPS tracking devices for life and not live within 2000 feet of any facility frequented by children, effectively removing them from much of urban California. Proposition 86, the cigarette tax initiative to fund children’s health care and emergency services, has a big lead, 63% to 32%. Proposition 87, the oil extraction tax to finance alternative fuels research, has a sizable lead, 52% to 31%. Proposition 90, the initiative to make it difficult for local governments to seize property by invoking eminent domain, has a 46% to 31% lead. Proposition 85, which would require parental notification for teen abortions, is in a dead heat, 44% to 45%. A similar initiative was defeated last November.

Meanwhile, the Field Poll has the first post-primary soundings for California’s statewide races other than governor and U.S. senator and the results are quite good for longtime big name Democrats John Garamendi, Jerry Brown, and Bill Lockyer.

In the race for lieutenant governor, Democrat John Garamendi (current state insurance commissioner and former Clinton era U.S. deputy interior secretary, gubernatorial candidate, and state senate majority leader) leads Republican Tom McClintock, 48% to 38%. McClintock, perhaps California’s most prominent conservative politician, is a state senator who gained fame with his third place finish in the 2003 recall campaign for governor. In the race for state attorney general, a post his father first won in 1950, former Governor and current Oakland Mayor Jerry Brown leads Republican state Senator Chuck Poochigian, 54% to 33%. And in the race for state treasurer, the state’s banker, state Attorney General Bill Lockyer leads his Republican challenger, state Board of Equalization member Claude Parrish, 52% to 27%.

But another very well-known Democrat, who lost badly to Schwarzenegger in the 2003 recall election, fares poorly running for a lesser office against a little-known Republican.

In the race for insurance commissioner, there is a dead heat between the Democratic and Republican candidates. Lieutenant Governor Cruz Bustamante, the Democratic replacement nominee for governor in the 2003 recall who lost in a landslide to Schwarzenegger, has a slight edge over Silicon Valley entrepreneur Steve Poizner, 43% to 39%. Bustamante’s image plummeted in the wake of media revelations and Schwarzenegger attacks about his massive illegal funding from Indian casino tribes during his 2003 gubernatorial campaign. And Poizner is a super-rich moderate. Schwarzenegger raised him to prominence when he appointed him to the state’s powerful Public Utilities Commission, which regulated energy and telecommunications service providers. Poizner, however, had to step away from the post when it became apparent he could only be confirmed by the state Senate if he divested himself of his massive complex of venture capital and other equity investments.

Another moderate Republican is also faring pretty well. In the race for secretary of state (the overseer of elections), there is another dead heat. Democratic state Senator Debra Bowen has a slight edge over the appointed Republican incumbent, Bruce McPherson, a former state senator, 38% to 35%. Schwarzenegger appointed McPherson to the post after Democrat Kevin Shelley resigned under fire over widespread partisan irregularities in his management of the office.

In the final statewide race, between two little-known candidates, the Democratic brand is holding up so far for would-be state controller John Chiang. The Democratic candidate, another member of the state Board of Equalization (which oversees much of the tax system), leads Republican Tony Strickland, a former state senator, 38% to 27%.

There you have the overall state of play. We’ll focus in on specific races as the snapshot changes.