Time for Some Primary Democracy

Democratic presidential politics is in for a big change as it rolls towards 2008. At long last the self-conscious and distinctly unrepresentative Iowa/New Hampshire duopoly at the start of the presidential cavalcade every four years is being expanded. Finally, the West is represented, as is the South.The Democratic National Committee approving the long sought change on August 20th.

Not everyone is happy about this, of course. At the head of the line are the people in the two states which have long wielded disproportionate influence in presidential nominating politics whether the Iowa caucuses or the New Hampshire primary. Crowding close behind them are some in the press who are used to the process; one which over-samples white, highly-educated liberal activists.

Nevada, running caucuses, will be the second state in the 2008 contest for the presidential nomination, sandwiched between Iowa and New Hampshire. South Carolina’s primary will then tred closely on the Granite State’s heels.

Expect California and Nevada to become a two-step for the party’s presidential candidates. A stop in Los Angeles or the San Francisco Bay Area to raise money followed by a quick flight to Las Vegas or Reno for some key early campaigning is going to be the dance all the candidates will have to do.

Why the changes?

The first and foremost driving force was the long-standing concern that the Democratic party’s nomination contest was overly influenced by two states, Iowa and New Hampshire, that in no way reflect the emerging diversity of America.Coupled to that was the fact that regions key to the party’s future, the West and the South, went neglected as presidential campaigns were conceptualized and structured to score early breakthroughs in Iowa and New Hampshire.

The shift west, in particular, is seen as critical, since the party has had several recent nominees from the South. Democrats have become increasingly competitive in the West, and not just in California. Nevada had competition for the second-in-the-nation Western slot from Arizona and, earlier on, Colorado. In the end, Nevada got the nod, in large measure because it is heavily Latino and has a major labor presence. And because Nevada has the third highest per capita population of veterans in the country. One in six Nevadans has served in the military, making it a good place to develop national security themes. It didn’t hurt that U.S. Senate Democratic Leader Harry Reid, who represents the Silver State in the Senate, wanted it to happen.

Arizona had the additional burdens of being substantially bigger and thus more expensive to campaign in as well as being home to Senator John McCain. If McCain is the Republican presidential nominee, that would essentially remove the possibility of the Democratic nominee carrying the state in the general election. But Nevada — which for many years was part of “Reagan Country” — went for Bill Clinton in 1992 and 1996. And John Kerry nearly beat George W. Bush there in 2004, losing by little more than two percent.

Primary states also need to be politically manageable in terms of size and population. Iowa and New Hampshire have populations of three million and 1.3 million, respectively, according to the 2005 estimate of the U.S. Census Bureau. Nevada, one of the fastest-growing states in the country, had 2.4 million people last year; South Carolina 4.3 million. Moving California or another big state into the lead group would not work because it would be unfair to all but those able to raise the most money. The emphasis on smaller states in the beginning allows a dark horse candidate the opportunity to shine and break through.

Moving Nevada into the lead group in presidential nomination politics means that Western issues of immigration, development, water, energy, and the environment will also move to the fore. Labor is happy because Nevada, contrary to its old image as an anti-labor haven, is one of the most unionized states in the country. Nearly a quarter of the state’s population is Latino, and roughly a quarter of its voters are in union households.

There was little debate over moving Nevada to the front of the pack. There was more dissension about South Carolina, expressed by longtime Clinton advisor Harold Ickes, now counseling Democratic presidential frontrunner Hillary Clinton. John Edwards, the party’s 2004 vice presidential nominee, represented neighboring North Carolina in the U.S. Senate and could have the edge in a South Carolina primary if he runs, as expected, for president. But South Carolina, again unlike Iowa and New Hampshire, has a large African American population, and that was a major factor as well.

Some of the East Coast political media, dinosaurs in waiting, reflected on the insider Hotline site, say it is still just Iowa and New Hampshire in the presidential nomination sweepstakes. That’s because they don’t want to fly West — where the presidency is merely waiting to be won in a number of states in addition to Nevada — and learn something new. These are the same folks who regularly get it wrong.

In addition to archaic attitudes, the national party will have to deal with archaic state laws in Iowa and New Hampshire that seek to maintain their preeminence in presidential politics by guaranteeing that each is the first caucus state and first primary state, respectively, and by maintaining a large interval between the two. But insiders say the first, fundamental point, is maintained by the new scheme, since Nevada is a caucus state and South Carolina a primary state. And the second point will be dealt with via a combination of national party will and vague drafting in the state law.

In the meantime, the Democrats are moving forward with the new system. Republican sources say there is a good chance they will follow. While Nevada is not a perfect choice and neither is South Carolina — what is? — the new dynamic is very much to be welcomed.

New issues, different perspectives, and a lessening of the influence of electorates used to self-consciously “vetting” presidential candidates every four years. It’s about time.

An exclusive article from Pajamas Media, the Best of the Blogs, and POLITICSCENTRAL.