Politics Central: Autumn of the Partisans

The base may still nominate but in an era when it doesn’t elect does the hyperpartisan still get to serve? William Bradley says California provides a clue.

In this era in which hyperpartisans — on both far sides of the aisle — have become adept at screaming their mantras and building their straw men, frequently dominating what passes for “debate,” something very interesting is happening in California.

The partisans are beginning to evaporate.

In 1990, California had 12 million voters registered as members of the two major parties. Today, after an increase of 5.7 million in the adult population, 3.4 million in the population of eligible voters, and about 2 million in the number of registered voters, we still have only 12 million voters registered to the two major parties. Together, the Democratic and Republican parties have not grown at all in California.

As the Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) points out in a new report, “eight in 10 adults are eligible to vote but just 56 percent are registered, less than half (43%) belong to one of the major parties, and only 35 percent of adults can be expected to vote in the November election.”

Voter registration is growing at a much slower rate than the population. Only 15.7 million of California’s 27.7 million adults are registered to vote.

“Political party membership has also declined over the past 16 years. The percentage of California adults registered as major party voters has dropped from 54 percent to 43 percent,” notes the PPIC.

In 1990, there were 12 million Californians registered as Democrats or Republicans. In 2006, there are 12 million Californians registered as Democrats or Republicans.

The growth in the state’s voter registration has been in the category known as “decline to state.” These are independents who refuse to choose membership in either of the two major political parties.

“For the first time in modern California history,” the PPIC notes, “the majority of adults do not belong to one of the major parties.”

The two parties increasingly talk to their bases. Why is that? It’s what they are used to doing. It’s what they enjoy doing as they reflect the hyperpartisan wars in Washington. And it’s what makes sense to the institutional base of the parties, given the partisan gerrymandering both Democrats and Republicans regularly conspire in to make general elections in legislative and congressional districts in California just about as competitive as contests for the old Supreme Soviet.

But in statewide politics, this approach totally misses the mark.

As former Governor Gray Davis, elected as a centrist Democrat in 1998, increasingly followed along with the Democratic-dominated state Legislature, he fell more and more out of phase with the overall statewide electorate. Although he won a surprisingly narrow re-election over a right-wing Republican in 2002, the state’s out of control budget and past public dismay over his handling of an earlier electric power crisis set him up for what became the great California recall of 2003.

Parachuting into the center of things was action movie superstar Arnold Schwarzenegger. Running as a Republican promising to eschew partisan politics, Schwarzenegger weathered some rough going but swept to a landslide victory.

After adopting an unsuccessful partisan tone of his own last year in pursuing several unsuccessful ballot initiatives — which, ironically, could have been sold more effectively from the center — the former Mr. Universe has returned to the approach which brought him a smashing electoral victory in his first campaign and record high popularity ratings during his first year as California’s governor.

In doing so, his campaign is geared almost entirely to appeal to the burgeoning number of independent voters, the voters he won when he was elected but lost last year.

The themes that work with independent voters are themes of a creative center. Support for government coupled with skepticism about governmental efficiency and new taxes. Tolerance and support for individual rights and diversity coupled with support for law and order programs. Strong support for environmental protection coupled with strong support for technological innovation and entrepreneurship. Right now all that is working for Schwarzenegger while the conventional Republicans of the partisan right and the conventional Democrats of the partisan left scramble for attention and support.

Bill Bradley, of New West Notes, is a third generation Californian, award-winning columnist and political analyst, and former advisor and operative in dozens of Democratic campaigns ranging from the city council to the White House.

An exclusive article from Pajamas Media, the Best of the Blogs, and POLITICSCENTRAL.

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Comments (3)

fiona :

However - the partisans still come out to vote in both primary and general - the center, or independents, not so much, except (maybe) in presidental elections. With 40% turnout, most will be the "partisans" who not only vote, but contribute and work at grass roots level.

Sep 25, 2006 05:01 PM

Barbara :

"Voter registration is growing at a much slower rate than the population. Only 15.7 million of California’s 27.7 million adults are registered to vote".

And this same PPIC study found that the majority of those 15.7 million adults are "predominately white,age 45,and older, relatively affluent" and homeowners....with "very different political views" than non-voters, who are mostly under age 45, renters ,non college graduates, low -income...so while California became by 2000 the first "large majority minority state" the self interest of the voting population "dominates the ballot box."

Turning around the above is not just dependent of voter registration drives, it is much more dependent on public school education getting its act together. The above situation will take years to to turn around, but it won't turn around at all with drop-out rates of minority kids like we have in LA Unified and throughout California...Education is the civil rights issue for this century...those were Antonio V.'s words, he understands the urgency of this issue,hence his take-over plan of LA Unified, and Arnold said the same thing at the last Reep convention, so I am hopeful that times are changing for the better...especially for California kids.

Sep 26, 2006 08:32 AM

Adam :

Nice piece, Bill.

And great photo---but I think Mickey Mouse is a hard right libertarian. I
just hope there isn't a photo of Arnold getting kissed by that rodent.

Sep 26, 2006 09:17 AM


	Found in: Article ; Election Central ; Polls September 25, 2006 1:03 PM Autumn of the Partisans The base may still nominate but in an era when it doesn’t elect does the hyperpartisan still get to serve? William Bradley* says California provides a clue.* In this era in which hyperpartisans — on both far sides of the aisle — have become adept at screaming their mantras and building their straw men, frequently dominating what passes for “debate,” something very interesting is happening in California. The partisans are beginning to evaporate. In 1990, California had 12 million voters registered as members of the two major parties. Today, after an increase of 5.7 million in the adult population, 3.4 million in the population of eligible voters, and about 2 million in the number of registered voters, we still have only 12 million voters registered to the two major parties. Together, the Democratic and Republican parties have not grown at all in California. As the Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) points out in a new report, “eight in 10 adults are eligible to vote but just 56 percent are registered, less than half (43%) belong to one of the major parties, and only 35 percent of adults can be expected to vote in the November election.” Voter registration is growing at a much slower rate than the population. Only 15.7 million of California’s 27.7 million adults are registered to vote. “Political party membership has also declined over the past 16 years. The percentage of California adults registered as major party voters has dropped from 54 percent to 43 percent,” notes the PPIC. In 1990, there were 12 million Californians registered as Democrats or Republicans. In 2006, there are 12 million Californians registered as Democrats or Republicans. The growth in the state’s voter registration has been in the category known as “decline to state.” These are independents who refuse to choose membership in either of the two major political parties. “For the first time in modern California history,” the PPIC notes, “the majority of adults do not belong to one of the major parties.” The two parties increasingly talk to their bases. Why is that? It’s what they are used to doing. It’s what they enjoy doing as they reflect the hyperpartisan wars in Washington. And it’s what makes sense to the institutional base of the parties, given the partisan gerrymandering both Democrats and Republicans regularly conspire in to make general elections in legislative and congressional districts in California just about as competitive as contests for the old Supreme Soviet. But in statewide politics, this approach totally misses the mark. As former Governor Gray Davis, elected as a centrist Democrat in 1998, increasingly followed along with the Democratic-dominated state Legislature, he fell more and more out of phase with the overall statewide electorate. Although he won a surprisingly narrow re-election over a right-wing Republican in 2002, the state’s out of control budget and past public dismay over his handling of an earlier electric power crisis set him up for what became the great California recall of 2003. Parachuting into the center of things was action movie superstar Arnold Schwarzenegger. Running as a Republican promising to eschew partisan politics, Schwarzenegger weathered some rough going but swept to a landslide victory. After adopting an unsuccessful partisan tone of his own last year in pursuing several unsuccessful ballot initiatives — which, ironically, could have been sold more effectively from the center — the former Mr. Universe has returned to the approach which brought him a smashing electoral victory in his first campaign and record high popularity ratings during his first year as California’s governor. In doing so, his campaign is geared almost entirely to appeal to the burgeoning number of independent voters, the voters he won when he was elected but lost last year. The themes that work with independent voters are themes of a creative center. Support for government coupled with skepticism about governmental efficiency and new taxes. Tolerance and support for individual rights and diversity coupled with support for law and order programs. Strong support for environmental protection coupled with strong support for technological innovation and entrepreneurship. Right now all that is working for Schwarzenegger while the conventional Republicans of the partisan right and the conventional Democrats of the partisan left scramble for attention and support. Bill Bradley, of New West Notes, is a third generation Californian, award-winning columnist and political analyst, and former advisor and operative in dozens of Democratic campaigns ranging from the city council to the White House. An exclusive article from Pajamas Media, the Best of the Blogs, and POLITICSCENTRAL. ——— Return to Pajamas Media homepage digg this del.icio.us comment email print x Email this link to: Your email address: Message (optional): Comments (3) fiona : However - the partisans still come out to vote in both primary and general - the center, or independents, not so much, except (maybe) in presidental elections. With 40% turnout, most will be the "partisans" who not only vote, but contribute and work at grass roots level. Sep 25, 2006 05:01 PM Barbara : "Voter registration is growing at a much slower rate than the population. Only 15.7 million of California’s 27.7 million adults are registered to vote". And this same PPIC study found that the majority of those 15.7 million adults are "predominately white,age 45,and older, relatively affluent" and homeowners....with "very different political views" than non-voters, who are mostly under age 45, renters ,non college graduates, low -income...so while California became by 2000 the first "large majority minority state" the self interest of the voting population "dominates the ballot box." Turning around the above is not just dependent of voter registration drives, it is much more dependent on public school education getting its act together. The above situation will take years to to turn around, but it won't turn around at all with drop-out rates of minority kids like we have in LA Unified and throughout California...Education is the civil rights issue for this century...those were Antonio V.'s words, he understands the urgency of this issue,hence his take-over plan of LA Unified, and Arnold said the same thing at the last Reep convention, so I am hopeful that times are changing for the better...especially for California kids. Sep 26, 2006 08:32 AM Adam : Nice piece, Bill. And great photo---but I think Mickey Mouse is a hard right libertarian. I just hope there isn't a photo of Arnold getting kissed by that rodent. Sep 26, 2006 09:17 AM Comments have been archived for this page.	Election Central Issues Central Media Central Freeranger Central Glenn & Helen Show The Sanity Squad Pajamas Media Politics @Squidoo Support Pajamas Media; Visit Our Advertisers RSS Feeds RSS \| Atom Pajamas Media Guess Who’s Opening the DNC? 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Autumn of the Partisans

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