Breakfast With Mehlman by Richard Miniter

Like the army before a war, [the GOP] has been prepositioning assets in battleground states. By Richard Miniter, PJM Editor, Washington, DC

No Pollyanna, Republican National Committee Chairman Ken Mehlman dryly announced at breakfast that the GOP faces its “most challenging election environment since 1982.”

It has come this: A Republican party chief breakfasting with a gaggle of conservative journos has to establish his bona fides by admitting that defeat is possible. “Perfect storms happen,” he adds.

Still, Mehlman continues, “I think we keep the senate and probably keep the house.” He anticipates losses in both chambers, but more of a haircut than a down-to-the-scalp shave.

And, yes, Mehlman is too smart to say which races he thinks the GOP will lose. Even at a breakfast sponsored by the American Spectator and Grover Norquist’s Americans for Tax Reform, he knows that even the most loyalist reporters would jump on that scoop.

So how does he plan to save the majority? This is where it gets interesting.

Mehlman says that he has been planning to counter what he calls “the six-year itch” for the past two years. “I’ve had people [organizers] on the ground in Pennsylvania since March 2005.” Like the army before a war, he has been prepositioning assets in battleground states.

Next, Mehlman says, that the GOP has been aggressively identifying and signing up new voters and volunteers. He pours out an avalanche of statistics: “28,000 new volunteers in Arizona, 7,000 in Rep. Porter’s district,” Nevada’s third congressional district, and so on. The avalanche continues to pour like Morton’s salt for several minutes. And all of this party building is on top of the massive amount done for the 2004 presidential race.

Let’s not forget the incredible money advantage enjoyed by Republicans. Mehlman brags that the GOP has added 200,000 brand new donors this year alone. As a result, even the most beleagured Republican incumbents have money in bank for broadcast ads and get-out-the-vote efforts. The RNC is devoting some $60 million to congressional races this year—the largest amount the RNC has ever spent on congress. And these funds are is in addition to mountains of money handed to candidates by the House and Senate Republican campaign committees.

His piece de resistance is “microtargeting.” “We find voters the way Visa targets customers,” he says, “based on what they do, not where they live.” In short, by using a custom-built, massive multi-relational database whose sole purpose is to find potential Republicans voters. The Democrats have nothing like it.

He later adds that the Democrats probably don’t need microtargeting—they have labor unions, black churches and ward heelers for that. What microtargeting does is erase a Democratic advantage in turnout, putting the parties on the same plain.

But microtargeting could be a real advantage. Mehlman estimates that it might generate a 1-2 percentage point increase in GOP votes, depending on the race. That could put incumbents with razor-thin margins—like Sen. Talent—over the top.

Another tool for victory: the web. In this cycle, Mehlman says, there is “much more reliance on blogs and podcasting. We are even doing something called ‘wire-side chats’ “with conservative stars.

They’re getting smarter with advertising too. GOP ads now run on search engines as well as radio traffic reports and health-club televisions. “Buzz marketing is very important,” he says.

Mehlman also gets political intelligence from the web. “I look at the Iowa electronic market [in election futures] every day.”

Asked about possible upsets that benefit the GOP, he ticks off the Oregon and Maine governor’s races, the Vermont at-large congressional seat, Haiwaii’s second district and Iowa’s third.

Is he worried that the Foley scandal will depress turnout? NO. “There is no Foley effect” that he can measure, he says.

Mehlman contended that virtually all published polls are biased because they survey many more Democrats than Republicans. Usually pollsters weight partisan responses by what they believe turnout will be for the two parties. This year, pollsters are estimating a record Democratic turnout and thus over-sampling Democrats. Indeed, these polls are based on a Democratic turnout that has not existed in 26 years, Mehlman says. Interesting, if true.

Are Democrats more motivated this year? The MSM thinks so but Mehlman cites data that disputes the prevailing view. In 36 out of the 39 contested Democratic primaries this year, he says, turnout was at or below the average level of the past 20 years. If he is right, the “Deocratic groundswell” is a media invention helped along by biased polls.

Overall, Mehlman projects an aura of nerdish confidence. “There are no surprises this year. No race has suddenly come into play. We’ve been through tough battles before. We’ve planned for this kind of environment for a long time. I’m very comfortable. I don’t wake up in the middle of the night [worrying]. We have a plan to deal with it.”

He may be the only Republican sleeping soundly this October.