George Washington in his farewell speech warned citizens that political parties might allege to be working in the interest of the people, but ultimately their real purpose would be to take control from the people and give it to corrupt men. The warning from President Washington rings familiar and those words warrant a look at the November, 2012 general election.
The prominent candidates include: Michele Bachmann, Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich, Jon Huntsman, Ron Paul, Rick Perry, Mitt Romney, and Rick Santorum. This year Mitt Romney, has often been at the head of the pack, but unable to break through 23 to 25 percent of Republicans who are likely to vote for him. On the other hand, when asked which candidate is most likely to defeat President Obama, Mitt Romney has consistently and overwhelmingly ranked at the top of the candidates. Some believe he will never be able to rise above his flip-flopping reputation, and President Obama will be able to emphasize the label.
Almost every other Republican candidate except Rick Santorum and Jon Huntsman has taken a turn at the “front of the class,” like the “flavor of the week”. Each has been knocked off the pedestal due to various allegations ranging from sexual harassment, ethical charges, or brain freeze.
It is thought that Jon Huntsman whose approval rating has never gone above three percent is a good alternative to President Obama. He was a job making, no tax increasing Governor of Utah. He travelled the world as a young man, speaks fluent Chinese and served as U.S. Ambassador to China under President Obama before resigning to run for President. Other “camps” believe he cannot identify with the common man and by resigning to run against President Obama he is disloyal.
Some pundits think the 2012 election is all about “Obamacare, stupid!” Others point to, “Jobs, jobs, jobs” as the key to his winning the election. President Obama will probably continue to point to inherited problems that the United States is enduring. Opponents will point to his inability to lead, take timely action or balance the budget. Supporters believe his positive decisions in foreign affairs will bolster him with the electorate.
President Obama’s team hopes to retain the Independent and Latino vote. It will also be imperative that young voters are supportive again. Their campaign team had the edge on social networking four years ago, but the Republicans have made major improvements in the technical area. The Democrats will not have the advantage in 2012.
The rumor mill has circulated the possibility of Vice-President Biden and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton changing offices for the 2012 race. This might solidify some of the female vote. It seems highly unlikely that this will happen.
It is not easily surmised where the Independent vote will fall in the next Presidential election. Many were drawn to the Obama presidency with its promise of hope and change. Over the past three years little has changed and people are reaching a point of hopelessness. The state of the political process, and more importantly the United States, seems to be worse than ever. Will Independents who supported President Obama by high percentages stay at home? There is the possibility that the blame could be laid at the feet of the Republicans and they will once again support the President. This is the big question of the upcoming election.
The newly formed Tea Party will play a large part on the election. The Tea Party might run a third party candidate. If Republicans nominate a moderate candidate, tea partiers might decline to vote in the election. Either choice would likely bring disaster to a Republican candidate.
At this early date it’s s “light-years” before the election. The sand could quickly shift and anyone could be elected.